I am not a climate change scientist. I am someone who is only a little more than erudite than others on climate change literature. My academic curiosity on climate change came about through two research projects of mine, both of them are consequent issues arising from global warming. The first one, which I did some five years ago, was on the carbon footprint of paper consumption. It was followed by a crude mathematical model to see how much inundation will have impacted coastal communities, if the projected annual increase in average sea level persists for the next 50 years. The latter could have been easily done with the help of 3D simulation software used to make movie special effects. Being a member of the academe though, I forced myself to cough out a naive mathematical model to produce this simulation. The math component of that model turned out to be pretty simple. It was essentially a model based on matrices.
Recently, I was again drawn to read and listen to lectures on climate change, but this time I read it with a great deal of skepticism. Having written a book on Physical Science for K to 12, and having finished half of Earth and Life Science, I came to realize that much of the claims about global warming and climate change are incredibly fantastic. In particular, I am baffled by the seeming obsession climate change activists have about carbon dioxide as the gas of concern for global warming.
Climate is a complex system, much more complex than the weather bulletin we hear from the news. Weather is complex enough that meteorologist cannot produce a two-week weather advisory that can be put to good use. Consequently, it comes as truly fantastic any claim that in 50 years our planet will descend into a scourging temperature if current CO2 emissions are not reduced.
Here is the list of variables that affect Earth's climate
EARTH’S ORBIT
Earth’s orbit around the sun does not stay in its place. its eccentricity (elongation) is found to be constantly changing.
EARTH’S AXIS
Earth’s axis is tilted. This tilt produces Earth’s changing seasons. But more importantly, this tilt wobbles like a twirling top (trumpo) and completes one cycle every 36,000 years. In astronomy lexicon, this is called Axial Precession.
SUN’s RADIANT ENERGY
Our sun is the strongest force that affects the dynamics of Earth’s climate, and it is not the static unchanging celestial object people imagine it to be. The sun displays fluctuations in radiant energy. These fluctuations were found to be correlated with the appearance of sun spots.
WATER VAPOR
Water vapor is the most potent greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. It surpasses CO2 in its ability to absorb heat. On average, it accounts for 60% of the greenhouse effect.
CLOUDS
Clouds have a role to play in temperature, a role whose net effect is difficult to pin down. Some clouds reflect back sunlight, some absorbs the radiant heat leaked out by our planet.
METHANE, NITROUS OXIDE, N20, O3
CO2 and water vapor are not the only greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
How our climate will fare out in the future is uncertain. What is certain though is that it will continue to change, but that is hardly a reason to be alarmed about because Earth’s climate has been constantly changing for billions of years. In the Pleistocene epoch alone, the period in Earth’s geologic history which saw the rise of Homo sapiens, there had been at least 6 Ice Ages and 6 interglacial periods. An interglacial period is when global temperature is increasing.
We are smack right there in the interglacial period which began some 2.6 million years ago.
Recently, I was again drawn to read and listen to lectures on climate change, but this time I read it with a great deal of skepticism. Having written a book on Physical Science for K to 12, and having finished half of Earth and Life Science, I came to realize that much of the claims about global warming and climate change are incredibly fantastic. In particular, I am baffled by the seeming obsession climate change activists have about carbon dioxide as the gas of concern for global warming.
Climate is a complex system, much more complex than the weather bulletin we hear from the news. Weather is complex enough that meteorologist cannot produce a two-week weather advisory that can be put to good use. Consequently, it comes as truly fantastic any claim that in 50 years our planet will descend into a scourging temperature if current CO2 emissions are not reduced.
Here is the list of variables that affect Earth's climate
EARTH’S ORBIT
Earth’s orbit around the sun does not stay in its place. its eccentricity (elongation) is found to be constantly changing.
EARTH’S AXIS
Earth’s axis is tilted. This tilt produces Earth’s changing seasons. But more importantly, this tilt wobbles like a twirling top (trumpo) and completes one cycle every 36,000 years. In astronomy lexicon, this is called Axial Precession.
SUN’s RADIANT ENERGY
Our sun is the strongest force that affects the dynamics of Earth’s climate, and it is not the static unchanging celestial object people imagine it to be. The sun displays fluctuations in radiant energy. These fluctuations were found to be correlated with the appearance of sun spots.
WATER VAPOR
Water vapor is the most potent greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. It surpasses CO2 in its ability to absorb heat. On average, it accounts for 60% of the greenhouse effect.
CLOUDS
Clouds have a role to play in temperature, a role whose net effect is difficult to pin down. Some clouds reflect back sunlight, some absorbs the radiant heat leaked out by our planet.
METHANE, NITROUS OXIDE, N20, O3
CO2 and water vapor are not the only greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
How our climate will fare out in the future is uncertain. What is certain though is that it will continue to change, but that is hardly a reason to be alarmed about because Earth’s climate has been constantly changing for billions of years. In the Pleistocene epoch alone, the period in Earth’s geologic history which saw the rise of Homo sapiens, there had been at least 6 Ice Ages and 6 interglacial periods. An interglacial period is when global temperature is increasing.
We are smack right there in the interglacial period which began some 2.6 million years ago.